The Map and the Terrain: 2026 Midterm History Meets Geopolitical Reality
Historical map, quantified - S&P midterm-year avg +4.7% since 1931 vs +9.5% non-midterm, October vol 19.9% vs 12.3%, post-election 12m avg +15.4% since 1950, 19 consecutive positive cycles Terrain divergence - Brent above $100 on Hormuz headlines, Fed uncertain on oil-driven inflation, defense and…
Published: 2026-05-20 by GNG Research
Tickers: SPY
The (SPY) has slipped 2.6% from this year's highs, Brent crude has been pushing above $100 a barrel every time a Hormuz tanker incident hits the news, and the Fed is still trying to figure out whether oil-driven inflation in May is the same thing as oil-driven inflation in October. Midterms are six months away. The question I keep getting from people right now is the same one: do the historical patterns still apply this time? They apply, partially. The partial answer is the one that matters.
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