3 Incredible (But True) Facts About The "AI Bubble" That Smart Investors Need To Know For 2026
Fears about an AI bubble are understandable, given the roughly 4X increase in AI spending by hyperscalers in the last 3 years. And AI spending could potentially 6X in the next 5 years! The key to understanding whether AI is a bubble is to understand that your lived experience (or what you see in th…
Published: 2025-12-19 by GNG Research
I have several meetings and doctor's appointments today, so I apologize in advance if I have to split this report into two parts (and turn the entire update into a 4-part series). A technical glitch also deleted 2/3rd of my article today, and due to all the other stuff I’m working on, I don’t have time to recreate all of it. I’m also helping Connor analyze the latest calibration data for safety & quality scores. Safety scores determine quality scores, which in turn determine valuation ratings, so it’s critically important that we get these as accurately as possible. Because the ZEUS automation (Super ZEUS😉) will run on these systems. Once up and running, we can track both ZEUS and Super ZEUS and see whether the “Magic Money Machine” systems work as expected. Today’s information is too important to rush out, and quality research and analysis are exactly why GNG members are trusting us and supporting us financially. Part 1: 3 Shocking Facts Smart & Safe Investors Need To Know Why the stock market is either modestly undervalued (Morningstar) with 17% to 24% upside potential in the next year, or possibly as undervalued as the April lows (with 40% to 50% upside potential in the next year. Why earnings growth is not just good, it’s currently expected to reach 17% by the end of 2026 (3X the normal earnings growth rate). And why the big growth spending boom could continue to accelerate S&P earnings growth until it converges to 20+% Part 2: 5 Delightful Economic Facts Smart Investors Can Profit From in 2026 The economy is strong, and potentially set to accelerate to 4.2% growth in 2026 (and keep accelerating for several years after that). The implications for corrections (still normal corrections, but faster and V-shaped recoveries). The inflation spike is over, rates are likely to keep normalizing, and combined with Tax cuts + stimulus checks in 2026, this creates one of the best backdrops for the stock market in years. AI Boom Update Part 1 Source: DailyChartBook Understandably, lots of investors are worried that the biggest risk to the stock market (and at the moment, the economy) is the “AI Bubble bursting”. After all, when you see charts like this, how can you NOT worry that maybe things have gone out of control? Source: Nvidia, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, IDC What was once $3 trillion in cumulative AI spending over 5 years has become an estimated $3 to $4 trillion in AI spending PER YEAR, by 2030. About 60% of that spending occurs in the US, suggesting the potential economic impact could be historic. We could be facing the greatest economic boom in history Source: Source: Citigroup, Yale Budget Lab, Congressional Budget Office, Goldman Sachs, St. Louis Fed For context, in the 1990s, the last “golden age” in America (though largely due to lack of social media😉), we had 3.5% GDP growth for a decade. We’re potentially on track to exceed that next year, AND if the AI spending boom does what Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, Nvidia, and IDC (not to mention the 75 or so FactSet consensus for hyperscalers) expect, we could be facing double-digit growth due to US AI spending reaching levels as large as $2.4 trillion by 2030. For context, the 2021 Infrastructure Bill was $1.25 trillion in total spending over 10 years. We’re talking potentially 2X that…in one year. What The AI God’s Githeth, The AI Gods Taketh Away😉 Source: Daily Chart Book When 90% of the growth spending is from AI stocks, and 80% of earnings growth is from AI stocks, and 75% of returns are from AI stocks, that’s both justified, but also a risk to not just the stock market but also the economy itself. Fact 1: The K-Shaped Economy Created By The AI Boom Is Strange, Dangerous, And Wonderful At The Same Time! The reason for a strong economy in which many people suffer and the stock market seems to ignore scary headlines about rising delinquencies in subprime auto loans is th
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