Quick read on where my technical work stands across US Equities, sectors, China, and Metals/Miners
1️⃣ US Equities – Bullish Trend, But Expect Chop Around FOMC
From a pure technical standpoint, US Equity trends remain bullish coming out of late November. However, the recent SPX weakness is very much on schedule and supports the idea of:
Near-term consolidation into the FOMC meeting
Then a push to new highs into late December / early January
A few key points:
Multiple indices and equity-based ETFs are now near resistance, so near-term risk/reward isn’t great for new aggressive entries right into FOMC.
Rates and the US Dollar have both started to push higher again, even as we saw bullish JOLTS data on Tuesday.
Net takeaway:
Trend: bullish since late November
Tactical: expect a choppy 1–2 week period before a cleaner upside trend resumes.
2️⃣ Sector Rotation – Defensives Rolling Over, Cyclicals Taking the Baton
We’re seeing what we want to see for a healthy bull leg:
Recent weakness has been concentrated in defensive sectors:
Healthcare
Utilities
REITs
Consumer Staples
At the same time, Financials and Technology were both up >2% last week.
On a relative basis, Healthcare vs Equal-Weight S&P 500 has:
Rallied into major resistance exactly where the longer-term downtrend remains intact.
Started to roll over again, which confirms the idea that defensives are losing relative strength.
This rotation supports the idea of US Equities eventually pushing back to new highs, given that money is moving out of defensives and into more pro-cyclical and growth areas.
Where I expect strength into January:
Technology
Industrials
Financials
Transports via catch-up / mean reversion, which in turn supports Industrials
On Healthcare:
There has been strong stock-level action in Biotech, Med Tech, Healthcare Services, and Pharma over the last month.
I still want to watch Healthcare closely for any stabilization and early-year strength in 2026.
But until the relative downtrend breaks, I do not have a bullish relative call on Healthcare heading into next year.
3️⃣ China (FXI / HSCEI) – Short-Term Weakness Likely to Persist
China looks weak in the short run, and the latest price action lines up with the move higher in the US Dollar.
Despite reaffirmed 2026 stimulus guidance from the Politburo, HSCEI price action was bearish today.
FXI was down ~1.6%, breaking its minor uptrend from late November.
That break:
Opens the door for a test and potential break of the November lows at 38.15Ideal dip-buy zone is closer to $37.09
Near-term support: $38.15
Bigger picture:
Chinese equities have been in a sideways, choppy consolidation since September.
Today’s move doesn’t break the entire pattern, but it is a short-term negative and likely takes FXI lower over the next 1–2 weeks before a more durable stabilization.
4️⃣ Silver vs Gold – Silver Extended, Gold Likely Next to Move
Over the last three weeks, Silver has sharply outperformed Gold:
Silver has pushed to new all-time highs.
Gold has stalled over the last month.
Today, front-month Silver futures were up nearly 4%, breaking out of a range that had been in place since 12/1.
This is bullish for SLV on an absolute basis and has driven the SLV/GLD ratio into overbought territory.
On the ratio and indicators:
Weekly and monthly RSI on Silver are back in the mid-80s – clearly overbought.
I still think SLV can push toward $58.51, which would complete a measured move equal to the 11/21–12/1 advance.
However, counter-trend exhaustion signals are now present on the ratio, and by early 2026, Gold should start to catch up.
Implication:
The metals rally is healthier when both Silver and Gold are rising together.
Given how extended Silver is, Gold and the Gold miners may now offer the better near-term risk/reward.
Examples:
Newmont (NEM) was up ~5.7% on Tuesday, the best gainer in the S&P 500.
AU and other metals names remain in our Upticks list and still look like holds.
5️⃣ Gold Miners (GDX) – One of My Favorite Risk/Reward Setups
One trade I like tactically here is owning the Gold metals & mining space, via GDX:
GDX has built a large triangle consolidation in recent weeks.
Technically, this pattern still argues for an upside resolution, potentially to new all-time highs into year-end, if Gold joins Silver on the upside.
Silver miners also look good, but after the recent rip in spot Silver, they’re now more stretched.
Key levels for GDX:
Current area: around $81.94
Bullish trigger:
Any weekly close back above $84.03 (early December highs) should open the door to a move toward $90–$91.95.
Risk level / invalidation:
A break below $76 would postpone the bullish view; I view that as premature for now.
My stance:
It makes sense to start positioning in GDX at current levels, with an eye on:
$84.03+ as the breakout confirmation
Upside targets near $90–$92
Downside risk controlled vs. $76
Bottom Line
US Equities: Bullish trend intact from late November, but expect chop into FOMC before an eventual move to new highs.
Sectors: Defensives are weakening; I like Tech, Industrials, Financials, and Transports into January.
China: Short-term weakness in FXI/HSCEI likely continues for 1–2 weeks as the Dollar strengthens.
Metals: Silver has led and is overbought; I expect Gold to play catch-up, making Gold + Miners attractive.
Trade idea: Long GDX with a focus on a weekly close above $84.03 for confirmation and downside risk managed vs. $76.