TTSM
    AAVGO
    VVYM
    MMO
    JJPM
    CCNQ
    Model PortfolioDividend GrowthQuant

    Built to Tolerance: The Vulcan Growth and Income Model Portfolio

    Built to Tolerance: The Vulcan Growth and Income Model Portfolio
    • Live 2026-06-10, 19 GNG-Quant Buy+ dividend names, equal-weighted, rule-based re-gauging, mandate to outperform VYM on total return, portfolio yield, dividend growth, and risk-adjusted return
    • Starting portfolio yield ~2.66% vs VYM ~2.45% (≈0.20pp cushion); weighted dividend growth ~10-12% annually vs VYM five-year ≈3.8% - income compounding is primary alpha engine
    • Equal-weight sizing ≈5.26% per name from $100,000 initial capital, residual cash $309, position band 5.10%-5.43%; sector caps ~25% - financials ~21%, utilities+REITs ~21%, energy ~10%
    • Decade in-sample backtest CAGR ≈18.2% vs VYM 8.4% ($10k→$53k vs $22.4k), beta ~1.05, long-window corr 0.90-0.94; treat the 7-10pp historical edge as a ceiling due to in-sample selection bias
    • Trailing 12 months underperformed VYM 16.5% vs 21.1% as high-yield value led, correlation fell to ~0.63 - differentiated exposure can cause short-term lag but supports long-term divergence from benchmark
    Glenn Ford
    Jun 10, 20266:55 PM2030

    Walk a precision machine shop and the first thing you notice is that nobody argues. Every part on the line earned its place by passing a gauge, not a vote. A spec sheet defines the tolerance, a gauge measures against it, and a part that drifts outside the band comes off the line whether anyone likes it or not. The Vulcan Growth and Income model portfolio, live on GNG Research as of June 10, 2026, was built to run on that same principle: nineteen dividend payers, each one passed through a hard inspection gate, sized by rule, and re-gauged on a fixed schedule.

    The thesis: out-grow the income, do not out-yield it

    The mandate is to beat the Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF (VYM) on four measures at once: total return, portfolio yield, dividend growth, and risk-adjusted return. That is a harder brief than it sounds, because the obvious path defeats itself. Loading the book with the highest yielders on the board is precisely how income investors end up holding eroding payouts in shrinking businesses, and the construction rules were written to forbid it.

    The design choice that makes the rest work is this: no single holding is required to out-yield the benchmark. Yield is gauged at the portfolio level only. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) and Broadcom (AVGO) yield well under 1% and earn their place on total return. Altria (MO) and Regions Financial (RF) carry the income that funds them. Blended, the book clears (VYM)'s roughly 2.45% with a starting yield near 2.66%, a cushion of about 0.2 percentage points.

    That thin cushion is intentional, because the real tolerance band is on the second measurement. Weighted dividend growth across the portfolio runs near 10% to 12% a year against (VYM)'s five-year dividend growth of roughly 3.8% and a three-year pace closer to 2.0% to 2.5%. Income compounding at nearly triple the benchmark rate turns a narrow year-one lead into a widening one, and it widens every year the parts stay in spec.

    GNG Vulcan Quant Rating - The inspection gate

    Every candidate, in either sleeve, had to clear the same gauge before anything else was measured: a GNG Research Quant rating of Buy or better, with no exception for size, popularity, or index membership. Several household mega-cap names with large retail followings failed that gate and were left out, which is the gauge doing its job rather than failing it.

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