Skip to main content

    GNG Research

    We read the footnotes.

    Twenty years of data, the desk's notes on every name we cover, and tools that don't pretend to be anything else.

    Create free account

    Free forever. No card. Cancel anytime. Log in Sunday newsletter

    Research and News

    Tokenomics 5: 8% Recession Risk, The Truth About Inflation & Interest Rates, Stocks Up To 50% Undervalued, And AI Spending Up 214% (And the Charts To Prove All Of It! It’s A LOT More Interesting Than It Sounds, I Promise! πŸ€”πŸ˜‰πŸ˜‚)

    Corrections feel short lately? Every 3 months we get FACTS (earnings)... and when the economy is growing, stocks recover in about 1.4X the time they fell. A 2-month drop = 3 months to reach record highs. Recession because Hamburger Helper sales are up? πŸ€” The bottom 20% spend every dollar they have, BUT that's just 2% of S&P profits. The Mag 7: 12.5X that last year, ~15X this year. Where's the recession? πŸ˜‚ After WWII, recessions hit every 4.6 years. Since 1982? Just 4 in 44 years, each with a shock behind it. JPMorgan's David Kelly says "We're post cycle"... and so do I. A 15% baseline recession risk? Too high πŸ€” Priced for perfection? On Oct 12, the S&P 500's PEGY was 0.69, 47.8% below normal, and ALL 6 investing styles we track price in less growth than Wall Street expects. It's the everything ANTI-bubble 🀯 Out-of-control inflation? Real-time inflation is 2.91% and CPI is 3.7%... vs a 3.3% average since 1913. Historically NORMAL. And the bond market (the smart money) isn't worried about runaway inflation. Highest 10-year yield in 20 years? A 2.9% real yield is NORMAL after the freakish ZIRP era. Who dumps a Nasdaq expected to grow cash flow 31% a year for 2.9%? Fed hikes don't run my portfolio. Asset allocation does πŸ˜‚ Is the AI boom cracking? Ramp's data: median AI spend per employee is up 214% in a year (vs 64% a year ago). ACCELERATING. Kimi and DeepSeek eating everyone's lunch? Anthropic and OpenAI get 96.5% of the spend 🀣 The scariest AI-bubble math says AI revenue must hit $3T by 2030 (double it every year). On real spending it's 52% a year... and AI infrastructure revenue just TRIPLED. So CTFD (calm the frack down) πŸ€£πŸ˜‚

    Adam Galas/

    U.S. markets

    Sectors

    Index ETF share prices, not index levelsSnapshot checked

    ETFPrice1D1W1M3MYTD1Y
    SPYS&P 500$765.22-0.85%-1.71%+1.73%+2.18%+13.09%+17.08%
    QQQNasdaq 100$713.69-1.97%-5.00%+1.38%+1.20%+16.57%+19.50%
    DIADow 30$519.86-0.23%+0.73%+1.13%-0.61%+9.36%+14.79%
    IWMRussell 2000$271.18-1.42%-2.78%-4.49%-8.02%+10.91%+11.78%
    VTITotal Market$374.96-0.92%-1.83%+1.25%+1.44%+12.80%+16.42%
    VXUSInternational$83.60-0.29%-1.44%-1.95%-0.37%+11.62%+15.48%

    Discover

    Snapshot checked

    About GNG Research

    Institutional-quality research and tools, built for individual investors by people who do the work themselves.

    About usMethodology