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Tokenomics 5: 8% Recession Risk, The Truth About Inflation & Interest Rates, Stocks Up To 50% Undervalued, And AI Spending Up 214% (And the Charts To Prove All Of It! Itβs A LOT More Interesting Than It Sounds, I Promise! π€ππ)
Corrections feel short lately? Every 3 months we get FACTS (earnings)... and when the economy is growing, stocks recover in about 1.4X the time they fell. A 2-month drop = 3 months to reach record highs. Recession because Hamburger Helper sales are up? π€ The bottom 20% spend every dollar they have, BUT that's just 2% of S&P profits. The Mag 7: 12.5X that last year, ~15X this year. Where's the recession? π After WWII, recessions hit every 4.6 years. Since 1982? Just 4 in 44 years, each with a shock behind it. JPMorgan's David Kelly says "We're post cycle"... and so do I. A 15% baseline recession risk? Too high π€ Priced for perfection? On Oct 12, the S&P 500's PEGY was 0.69, 47.8% below normal, and ALL 6 investing styles we track price in less growth than Wall Street expects. It's the everything ANTI-bubble π€― Out-of-control inflation? Real-time inflation is 2.91% and CPI is 3.7%... vs a 3.3% average since 1913. Historically NORMAL. And the bond market (the smart money) isn't worried about runaway inflation. Highest 10-year yield in 20 years? A 2.9% real yield is NORMAL after the freakish ZIRP era. Who dumps a Nasdaq expected to grow cash flow 31% a year for 2.9%? Fed hikes don't run my portfolio. Asset allocation does π Is the AI boom cracking? Ramp's data: median AI spend per employee is up 214% in a year (vs 64% a year ago). ACCELERATING. Kimi and DeepSeek eating everyone's lunch? Anthropic and OpenAI get 96.5% of the spend π€£ The scariest AI-bubble math says AI revenue must hit $3T by 2030 (double it every year). On real spending it's 52% a year... and AI infrastructure revenue just TRIPLED. So CTFD (calm the frack down) π€£π
Adam Galas/
I Ranked SCHD's 98 Holdings for Dividend Growth and Total Return. The Biggest Ones Didn't Come Out on Top.Glenn Ford/
5 High-Yield Dividend Picks for Q4 2026Connor Graham/
The AI Agent Boom Has a Pricing ProblemGlenn Ford/
FROM HELL'S HEART I STAB AT THEE: π€πππ€¬CTA Was the Best Hedge on Wall Street for 4 Years... Then Simplify Lost Its Mind. Here's the 40% Hedging Bucket ZEUS Is Moving ToAdam Galas/Latest research
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Americaβs Industrial Rebound Is Stronger Than Its Factory RecoveryTony Nash/
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The Supply Chain Fortress: How Japanese Industrial Consolidation Shapes Global GrowthTony Nash/
BTI Is My Largest Dividend Payer. I'm Testing Whether It Deserves That Weight.Glenn Ford/
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The Structural Fracture in Global Semiconductor Supply: Why TSMC and Samsung Face a RecalibrationTony Nash/
I'd Buy Big Tech's Biggest LaggardLeo Nelissen/Daily Movers
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Learn about investing
- BetaA measure of how strongly a portfolio moves with the broader market, where 1 means in line, above 1 means more volatile, below 1 means more defensive.
- Binding ConstraintA constraint that limited your portfolio: it would have been different without this rule.
- Black-Litterman ModelA method that blends market-implied returns with your own opinions about which assets will do better
- Calmar RatioAnnual return divided by maximum drawdown, useful when peak-to-trough loss matters more than volatility.
- Conditional Drawdown-at-Risk (CDaR)The average of the worst drawdowns in a backtest, used to optimize against deep peak-to-trough losses.
- Conditional VaR (CVaR)The average loss in the worst tail beyond VaR. Captures how bad the bad days really are.
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