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Insights, analysis, and updates from the GNG team.

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BTIPM+1PMMO

British American Tobacco: The Price Already Assumes Decline

Current reconciled price $57.65 implies reverse-DCF unlevered cash CAGR of -0.9% at 8.5% WACC, 3% terminal, rising to +2.9% requirement at a 9.5% WACC
New Categories grew 18.0% CC, GBP1,928m of GBP12,235m group revenue (15.8%); modern oral +65.9% revenue growth, 39.2% volume share, contribution GBP257m

Current reconciled price $57.65 implies reverse-DCF unlevered cash CAGR of -0.9% at 8.5% WACC, 3% terminal, rising to +2.9% requirement at a 9.5% WACC
New Categories grew 18.0% CC, GBP1,928m of GBP12,235m group revenue (15.8%); modern oral +65.9% revenue growth, 39.2% volume share, contribution GBP257m
Restructuring touches ~9,000 roles, targets GBP600m annualized savings by 2028 (GBP500m by 2027); management cuts net finance costs to ~GBP1.65bn and has a GBP1.3bn buyback (~1.4% market value)

Dividend InvestingDividend InvestingConsumer Defensive

GlennGlenn Ford8/272026-08-2711m11 MIN1221223

QXO+11QXOUNP+10

How To Buy Stocks Nobody Wants - Without Blowing Up Your Portfolio

Durable edge is willingness to hold unloved, high-quality businesses - excess return comes from unique info, reframed misreads, or holding what others cannot
Behavioral constraints matter - losses feel ~2x gains (Kahneman/Tversky) and myopic loss aversion makes frequent checking costly, accumulate over quarters not days

Durable edge is willingness to hold unloved, high-quality businesses - excess return comes from unique info, reframed misreads, or holding what others cannot
Behavioral constraints matter - losses feel ~2x gains (Kahneman/Tversky) and myopic loss aversion makes frequent checking costly, accumulate over quarters not days
Diagnose weakness before acting - distinguish cyclical, secular decline, or idiosyncratic problems, then apply a tailored response rather than relying on courage

Investing StrategyInvesting Strategy

LeoLeo Nelissen8/272026-08-2719m19 MIN1141148

OWLOBDC+2OBDCAPO+1

Blue Owl Capital (OWL): The Gate Held, the Stock Did Not

Market priced the tender requests, not actual liquidity - OWL shares fell from $15.77 (Nov 2025) to $11.68, hitting the high-$7s in April despite broad market +14% over the same period
Flagship repurchase requests hit 18.8% (~$3.6bn); manager honored 5% cap, net outflows $660m; tech fund outflows $100m - combined net $760m versus $7.8bn raised platform-wide, outflows = 0.25% of $319bn AUM

Market priced the tender requests, not actual liquidity - OWL shares fell from $15.77 (Nov 2025) to $11.68, hitting the high-$7s in April despite broad market +14% over the same period
Flagship repurchase requests hit 18.8% (~$3.6bn); manager honored 5% cap, net outflows $660m; tech fund outflows $100m - combined net $760m versus $7.8bn raised platform-wide, outflows = 0.25% of $319bn AUM
Fee-paying assets $190.6bn (+7% YoY), permanent capital $225.0bn; fee-related earnings $392.2m ($0.25 adj share) and distributable earnings $351.2m ($0.22) - both +9% as real assets near 30% of AUM

Alternative Asset ManagementAlternative Asset ManagementPrivate Credit

GlennGlenn Ford8/252026-08-2510m10 MIN1691693

PAA+14PAAPAGP+13

My Biggest MLP Ranking Ever - With A Surprising Result

European investors pay to avoid Schedule K-1 - Plains GP trades 8.6% above Plains MLP, implying roughly 55 basis points per year in yield forgone for K-1 avoidance.
TOLL+M ranking yields - Enterprise Products 5.7%, Energy Transfer 6.5%, MPLX 7.3%, Western Midstream 7.7%, Plains All-American 6.9%.

European investors pay to avoid Schedule K-1 - Plains GP trades 8.6% above Plains MLP, implying roughly 55 basis points per year in yield forgone for K-1 avoidance.
TOLL+M ranking yields - Enterprise Products 5.7%, Energy Transfer 6.5%, MPLX 7.3%, Western Midstream 7.7%, Plains All-American 6.9%.
Methodology change - O split into O1 competitive position and O2 counterparty durability, reflecting that MVCs protect fees not throughput; Chevron-Hess showed CVX 96% revenue, rigs 3->2, guidance +10% to flat.

Midstream MLPsMidstream MLPsDividend Investing

LeoLeo Nelissen8/242026-08-2416m16 MIN22922910

The Full Framework Behind My Highest-Conviction Ideas

TOLL+M is a 100-point investment framework - five pillars scored 20 each: Tangible assets, Oligopoly power, Low incremental capital intensity, Long-duration cash flows, Macro Alignment
Scoring bands avoid false precision - 0-8 fail, 9-12 adequate, 13-16 strong, 17-20 exceptional - enables consistent cross-company ranking

TOLL+M is a 100-point investment framework - five pillars scored 20 each: Tangible assets, Oligopoly power, Low incremental capital intensity, Long-duration cash flows, Macro Alignment
Scoring bands avoid false precision - 0-8 fail, 9-12 adequate, 13-16 strong, 17-20 exceptional - enables consistent cross-company ranking
Union Pacific shows low incremental capex in practice - operating ratio <60% implies >$0.40 of every revenue dollar drops to operating income; CME exemplifies oligopoly via coordination barriers

LeoLeo Nelissen8/202026-08-2014m14 MIN2112115

ACNIBM+2IBMCTSH+1

Accenture: My March Fair Value Was Too High. The Stock Is Still Too Cheap

I overstated March fair value, cutting blended Vulcan BFV to $227.62 (-22%), stock trading at $176.89, down ~17% since March and bottoming at $118.15 in June
Fiscal Q2 showed strength - record bookings $22.11B (+6%), book-to-bill 1.2, free cash flow $3.7B, adjusted operating margin +30bps, management raised FY FCF guide by $1.0B

I overstated March fair value, cutting blended Vulcan BFV to $227.62 (-22%), stock trading at $176.89, down ~17% since March and bottoming at $118.15 in June
Fiscal Q2 showed strength - record bookings $22.11B (+6%), book-to-bill 1.2, free cash flow $3.7B, adjusted operating margin +30bps, management raised FY FCF guide by $1.0B
Fiscal Q3 mixed - bookings -3% LC to $19.32B, consulting +1% LC to $9.3B, revenue +3% LC to $18.7B, operating margin 17.0% (+20bps), EPS $3.80 (+9%), FCF $3.6B, FY FCF guide $10.8-11.5B

value investingvalue investing

GlennGlenn Ford8/182026-08-1812m12 MIN1621625

PFE

Pfizer: The 6.5% Yield Everyone Is Afraid To Trust

Last raise was Dec 12, 2024 to $0.43, Dec 2025 declared $0.43 - quarterly rate at $0.43 for six quarters, calendar 2026 pays $1.72 vs 2025, next governance test is the Dec 2026 declaration
Dividend costs about $9.8bn annually, based on 5.7bn shares and $1.72 per share - evaluate coverage using free cash flow, not GAAP EPS, given recurring non‑cash impairments

Last raise was Dec 12, 2024 to $0.43, Dec 2025 declared $0.43 - quarterly rate at $0.43 for six quarters, calendar 2026 pays $1.72 vs 2025, next governance test is the Dec 2026 declaration
Dividend costs about $9.8bn annually, based on 5.7bn shares and $1.72 per share - evaluate coverage using free cash flow, not GAAP EPS, given recurring non‑cash impairments
FCF has not covered the dividend recently - 2023 FCF $4.8bn vs dividends $9.3bn (193% payout), 2024 FCF $9.8bn vs $9.5bn (97%), 2025 FCF $9.1bn vs $9.8bn (108%); 2026 FCF range $11.9bn-30.1bn

Dividend InvestingDividend Investinghigh-yield investing

LeoLeo Nelissen8/172026-08-1713m13 MIN1901906

How I Use the GNG AI Analyst to Find Stocks Worth Owning: A Complete Beginner's Walkthrough

Use the GNG AI Analyst to compress an evening of work into about 15 minutes - it pulls live prices, fundamentals, filings, dividends, earnings and news into interactive charts inside the chat workspace
Run plain-English screens across 5000+ tickers - example filter: dividend yield >2.5%, 5yr dividend growth >6%/yr, payout <75%, market cap >$10bn, sort by discount to fair value; queries cost pennies of credits

Use the GNG AI Analyst to compress an evening of work into about 15 minutes - it pulls live prices, fundamentals, filings, dividends, earnings and news into interactive charts inside the chat workspace
Run plain-English screens across 5000+ tickers - example filter: dividend yield >2.5%, 5yr dividend growth >6%/yr, payout <75%, market cap >$10bn, sort by discount to fair value; queries cost pennies of credits
Interpret the results like an analyst - be suspicious of extreme top rows, prefer names that are solid across columns, and refine with follow-up questions until you reach a 5-10 name shortlist

Stock ResearchStock ResearchStock Analysis

GlennGlenn Ford8/172026-08-1710m10 MIN2652658

NVDAPLTR+1PLTRCSCO

GNG Research Radar | August 8–14, 2026

NVIDIA struck platform deals with Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman and KKR to enable >$500bn potential AI-infrastructure financing, but capacity is not committed
PJM attributes roughly 30 GW of its projected 32 GW load growth through 2030 to data centers; proposed rule would force new large loads to bring generation or accept emergency curtailment

NVIDIA struck platform deals with Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman and KKR to enable >$500bn potential AI-infrastructure financing, but capacity is not committed
PJM attributes roughly 30 GW of its projected 32 GW load growth through 2030 to data centers; proposed rule would force new large loads to bring generation or accept emergency curtailment
Pentagon draft memo directs up to $244m to Palantir services through Mar 2027 and seeks funding to Dec 2028, potentially expanding PLTR into munitions production and supply-chain work

AI StocksAI StocksAI Infrastructure

GlennGlenn Ford8/142026-08-143m3 MIN2572570

CTADBMF+3DBMFKMLM+2

Is CTA Broken? Three Wars, Nine Funds, and Exactly What To Do About It 😉

In December I told you CTA wasn't broken, just cyclical. In March it went UP while the market fell 10%. Then May and June happened and it fell 19% while the S&P set twenty-five all-time highs 😳
Simplify's own risk profile: Brent crude is 56.95% of CTA's entire risk. Three energy contracts are 84.68%. No stocks, no bonds, no currencies. Eight commodity contracts = 100% of the fund 🤯

In December I told you CTA wasn't broken, just cyclical. In March it went UP while the market fell 10%. Then May and June happened and it fell 19% while the S&P set twenty-five all-time highs 😳
Simplify's own risk profile: Brent crude is 56.95% of CTA's entire risk. Three energy contracts are 84.68%. No stocks, no bonds, no currencies. Eight commodity contracts = 100% of the fund 🤯
CTA isn't broken. It's working perfectly on a job you no longer need done. It stopped being a hedge and became a leveraged bet on whether a war continues. Those aren't the same thing 🥺

hedginghedgingmanaged futures

AdamAdam Galas8/142026-08-1457m57 MIN69369319

1,000-To-1: The Number That Changed The Story For These 2 Stocks

CME’s moat remains formidable: its crypto open interest is roughly 1,000x the feared perpetual competitor, while capital efficiency and market data strengthen the franchise.
MIAX is the higher-growth bet: revenue rose 35% and adjusted EBITDA 57%, though some Q2 strength was temporary and market share remains a key metric to watch.

CME’s moat remains formidable: its crypto open interest is roughly 1,000x the feared perpetual competitor, while capital efficiency and market data strengthen the franchise.
MIAX is the higher-growth bet: revenue rose 35% and adjusted EBITDA 57%, though some Q2 strength was temporary and market share remains a key metric to watch.
The two stocks serve different purposes: CME offers income plus growth optionality, while MIAX should keep reinvesting its cash rather than paying a dividend.

Dividend GrowthDividend GrowthDividend Investing

LeoLeo Nelissen8/132026-08-1316m16 MIN2062060

GMEDMDT+1MDTISRG

Globus Medical Grew Earnings 56% On 6% Revenue. The Robotics Line Went Backwards.

Q2 non-GAAP EPS $1.34, up 55.8% y/y; revenue $789.6M, +5.9%; company kept revenue guide $3.18-3.22B and raised adjusted EPS to $4.95-5.05 from $4.70-4.80
Enabling Technologies revenue fell 25.8% to $26.1M, now 3.3% of sales - robotics is a marginal, shrinking contributor, so treat any robotics pull-through thesis as unproven

Q2 non-GAAP EPS $1.34, up 55.8% y/y; revenue $789.6M, +5.9%; company kept revenue guide $3.18-3.22B and raised adjusted EPS to $4.95-5.05 from $4.70-4.80
Enabling Technologies revenue fell 25.8% to $26.1M, now 3.3% of sales - robotics is a marginal, shrinking contributor, so treat any robotics pull-through thesis as unproven
Adjusted gross margin expanded 200bps to 69.4%; SG&A down $16.8M to $286.8M, SG&A margin improved 440bps to 36.3%; R&D fell to 4.6% of sales - 40-140bps of margin tailwind likely temporary

Medical DevicesMedical Devicesvalue investing

GlennGlenn Ford8/112026-08-1111m11 MIN1761760

TPL+1TPLLB

LandBridge & Texas Pacific Land Dominate My Portfolio - But One Is Clearly My Favorite

LandBridge and Texas Pacific Land both posted record quarters, but the market reaction exposed a major divergence in how investors are valuing the two stories.
TPL’s results were boosted by unusually high oil prices, while softer oil volumes, weaker Waha gas pricing, and falling forward inventory complicate the picture.

LandBridge and Texas Pacific Land both posted record quarters, but the market reaction exposed a major divergence in how investors are valuing the two stories.
TPL’s results were boosted by unusually high oil prices, while softer oil volumes, weaker Waha gas pricing, and falling forward inventory complicate the picture.
LandBridge’s core advantage is becoming clearer: scarce Permian pore space, rising water royalty rates, and limited direct commodity exposure.

Energy SectorEnergy Sectorearnings

LeoLeo Nelissen8/102026-08-1017m17 MIN2382382

MSFTAMZN+2AMZNGOOGL+1

Hyperscaler Earnings: 3 Weddings And A Funeral😉...And Elon's $240 TRILLION Fever Dreams😂🤣

Four reports, four days: three weddings and a funeral 😉 Six companies spent $188.4 BILLION in ninety days — $24,000 a second, while you slept. That is seven and a half years of NASA. In one quarter 🤯
Azure ACCELERATED to 43% past $100B. AWS hit 36.8%, its fastest in EIGHTEEN quarters. Google Cloud grew 81.8%. The slowdown analysts have forecast for eight straight quarters still hasn't shown up 😂

Four reports, four days: three weddings and a funeral 😉 Six companies spent $188.4 BILLION in ninety days — $24,000 a second, while you slept. That is seven and a half years of NASA. In one quarter 🤯
Azure ACCELERATED to 43% past $100B. AWS hit 36.8%, its fastest in EIGHTEEN quarters. Google Cloud grew 81.8%. The slowdown analysts have forecast for eight straight quarters still hasn't shown up 😂
And the funeral? Not Reality Labs — that loss widened $89M, a rounding error. R&D went from 27% of revenue to 36%. Meta made $60 BILLION and kept $784 million. Meta dug that grave itself 🥺

AI HardwareAI HardwareAI Infrastructure

AdamAdam Galas8/62026-08-0655m55 MIN6066069

FNV+3FNVWPM+2

I Ranked 3 Gold Royalty Stocks - And Overruled My Own Model

Macro thesis - AI-driven deflation pressures sovereigns to "run it hot" with fiscal stimulus, creating a structural tailwind for gold as a non-dilutable store of value for portfolio hedging
Prefer royalty/stream model over owning miners - upfront capital buys perpetual cash flows with no operating capex, lower operational risk, and scalable asset-light returns tied to producer efficiency

Macro thesis - AI-driven deflation pressures sovereigns to "run it hot" with fiscal stimulus, creating a structural tailwind for gold as a non-dilutable store of value for portfolio hedging
Prefer royalty/stream model over owning miners - upfront capital buys perpetual cash flows with no operating capex, lower operational risk, and scalable asset-light returns tied to producer efficiency
Instrument distinction matters - royalties pay a percentage of production, streams pay fixed discounted prices; FNV cash cost $341/GEO (≈91% adj. EBITDA margin), WPM $681/GEO, RGLD ≈$677/GEO

GoldGold

LeoLeo Nelissen8/62026-08-0613m13 MIN3823822

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