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    Abbott: The Market Priced the Dent and Forgot the Cargo

    Abbott: The Market Priced the Dent and Forgot the Cargo
    • Market punished Abbott - stock down ~34% from 52-week high $139.06 to ~$91, yet TTM revenue $45.1B, gross margin 56.4%, operating cash flow $9.46B and free cash flow $7.38B ($4.22/sh, 4.85% FCF yield)
    • Closed oncology acquisition for ~$21B equity (~$23B incl assumed debt), funded with $20B notes, net debt ~ $27B, trims ~ $0.20 of adjusted EPS this year while adding ~$3B sales into a ~$60B oncology screening market
    • FDA warning letter and Class I recall relate to CGM manufacturing controls, but regulators did not halt shipments - analysts expect limited near-term reported impact while Abbott completes corrective actions
    • Dividend and balance-sheet intact - 50+ years of increases, quarterly $0.63 ($2.52/year) equals ~2.8% yield, payout ~45% of adjusted earnings, interest coverage >30x, Altman 2.97, Beneish indicates no manipulation
    • Market pricing implies ~1.6% perpetual cash-flow growth versus management organic guide 6.5%-7.5%; blended fair value ~$112.50 implies 19% margin of safety and ~14% 12-month total return including the dividend
    Glenn Ford
    Jun 9, 20264:54 PM2260

    Picture an armored truck that hauls cash for a living. It takes a hard knock on the highway, the side panel crumples, and a bystander snaps a photo. The photo goes everywhere. People who never saw the truck before now know it only by the dent, and they start assuming the vault inside must be empty too. That's roughly where Abbott Laboratories (ABT) sits today, down about 34% from its 52-week high of $139.06 and trading near $91 while the cash it carries keeps piling up in the back.

    The selloff is real and the dents are real. What the market seems to have stopped doing is counting the cargo. Over the trailing twelve months Abbott pulled in $45.1 billion of revenue at a 56.4% gross margin, converted that into $9.46 billion of operating cash flow, and after capital spending was left with $7.38 billion of free cash flow. That's $4.22 per share of real, spendable cash, a 4.85% free cash flow yield at the current price. The vault is not empty. It's full and still filling.

    A household name most people have already touched

    You probably own a piece of Abbott's work without thinking about it. If a relative wears a small white glucose sensor on the back of their arm, that's Abbott. If you ever took a rapid test during the pandemic, drank an Ensure, or fed a baby Pedialyte, that was Abbott too. The company runs four separate businesses at once: medical devices, diagnostics, established pharmaceuticals, and nutrition. No single product or country carries the company on its own, which is exactly why a fifty-plus-year track record of raising the dividend was possible in the first place.

    That four-engine design matters for how you read a bad year. When one engine sputters, the truck still moves. The recent damage is concentrated, not spread, and that distinction is the heart of the investment case.

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