Palantir After the Reset: Why I Started Buying a Stock

Palantir After the Reset: Why I Started Buying a Stock That Is Still Expensive

Initiated a 1% position in the growth IRA on June 29 - stock is ~35% off its $207.52 52-week high, but valuation still demands a staged entry rather than an all-in buy.

Core product is a governed data layer for regulated institutions - Q1 net dollar retention 150% (up 1,100 bps), indicating high customer stickiness and outsized upsell potential.

Q1 FY26 results: revenue $1.633B (+85% YoY), U.S. revenue $1.282B (+104%), GAAP op income $754M (46%), adj FCF $925M (57%); cash $8.0B, no debt; FY revenue guide $7.65-7.662B (~71% growth).

Nvidia partnership and seven-year Zeta Global rebuild validate Palantir as a secure AI deployment foundation - Zeta could generate >$100M annually to itself, signaling platform-level adoption rather than point solutions.

Valuation is the key risk - trading near 67x this year’s adj FCF and implying ~50-60% FCF CAGR for five years; conservative blended fair value $132, GNG model $176, Street $183-200

I bought Palantir (PLTR) on June 29th. One percent, in the growth IRA model portfolio, at a price that would have looked reckless to me a year ago and looks merely uncomfortable now.

The stock is down roughly 35% from its 52-week high of $207.52, and it is still expensive. A 35% haircut sounds like a sale. It is not, at least not yet, and the multiple that is left is exactly why I am staging in instead of buying all at once.

That gap between a great company and a fair price is what I want to walk you through. Whether this is a good business is almost insulting to ask after the quarter Palantir just had. The real question is whether you can underwrite a price like this with arithmetic instead of faith. I think you can, barely, if you size it like the high-variance position it is.

So let's get right to it.

Palantir After the Reset: Why I Started Buying a Stock That Is Still Expensive

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