I Ranked 4 Of My Favorite REITs - The Results Shocked Me

    I Ranked 4 Of My Favorite REITs - The Results Shocked Me
    • TOLL+M is a 100-point quality screen assessing tangible assets, oligopoly power, low incremental capital intensity, long-duration cash flows and macro alignment; it scores structural quality, not valuation
    • Essential Properties - net-lease operator to service-oriented middle-market tenants. AFFO/sh +11% YoY, dividend 4.1%, payout 65%, 5-year CAGR 5.2%. Watch 13% car-wash concentration, coverage ~68.5% at 2.0x
    • Lamar Advertising - permit-driven scarcity plus a concentrated market with Outfront and Clear Channel, low incremental CapEx and durable cash flows.
    • Rexford Industrial is the author's holding; he added 6% after the model ranked it third. Thesis: Southern California infill scarcity and attractive valuation. Risk: rate-related pressure on near-term fundamentals
    • Use TOLL+M to isolate structural quality, then layer a valuation overlay. Score-price divergence can flag opportunistic buys; monitor AFFO growth and payout ratios to ensure cash-flow sustainability
    Leo Nelissen
    Jul 23, 20265:11 PM3470

    Everybody covers Realty Income (O). Everybody covers Prologis (PLD). I covered them too, and there is nothing wrong with owning the blue chips. I truly like both of these and think they make sense in many accounts.

    But the front page is a crowded place, and I'm not a huge fan of covering the market's most popular stocks.

    That's why today, I am running four under-covered REITs through my TOLL+M framework, similar to prior industry rankings that I have done. And, as you will find out, they could not be more different from each other. One is a net-lease machine. One is a billboard company that most people do not even file under "REIT." One owns cold-storage warehouses. And one I own myself and think is cheap as heck.

    Also, while my qualitative + quantitative model is entirely unbiased, I did hand-pick these REITs, as I like them for a number of reasons. Similar to prior industry rankings, I wanted to get to the bottom of what makes them special, how they rank when compared to each other, and to see if I'm missing something. It's why I continue to improve my models to give you the best results.

    Here is the twist I did not expect when I pulled the numbers. The framework downgraded the stock I own. It now sits third. I am going to walk you through exactly why, because that gap between what my framework says and what the price says is the whole reason I am still buying. I'm talking about Rexford Industrial (REXR), which I added to recently (I boosted my position by 6%)

    And to give you the spoiler right at the start, here's the full scorecard that I will defend in the results of the article:

    Keep Reading

    Create a free account to access more content.

    Sign in to leave a comment and join the discussion.

    Sign Up Free