Alternative Asset ManagementPrivate CreditDividend Investing

Why I'm Rotating Out of Brookfield and Into Blackstone

BX trades at 24% margin of safety vs BAM's 13%, nearly double the upside cushion in the same sector
BCRED redemptions hit $3.7B but net outflows were just $1.7B on an $82B fund with 9.8% annualized returns
BX Growth Score 96 with 23% expected sales growth and forward P/E of 14x, cheaper than BAM's 21x
Blackstone execs invested $400M of personal capital into the fund under pressure, a conviction signal
BAM Quality Score (91) beats BX (76), but at $46.57 BAM trades 16% above its DCF fair value of $39
Starter tranche in March 4th at the "very strong buy" zone; rotating ~50% of BAM into BX over coming days
Risk ledger includes 1.57 beta, 41% max drawdown, and declining EPS revisions to monitor closely

Glenn Ford

Mar 5, 20263:05 PM3830

When every headline screams "sell," the math whispers "buy." Here's why I'm making the uncomfortable move. Explore (BX) metrics and (BAM) metrics.

The Uncomfortable Trade

Last Monday, Blackstone's (BX) flagship private credit fund disclosed $3.7 billion in quarterly redemptions, roughly 7.9% of the fund's shares. The stock dropped over 8% in a single session. Twitter lit up with "private credit is broken" takes. CNBC ran the segment on loop.

This morning, I started buying. Here is why…

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