The Full Framework Behind My Highest-Conviction Ideas

    The Full Framework Behind My Highest-Conviction Ideas
    • TOLL+M is a 100-point investment framework - five pillars scored 20 each: Tangible assets, Oligopoly power, Low incremental capital intensity, Long-duration cash flows, Macro Alignment
    • Scoring bands avoid false precision - 0-8 fail, 9-12 adequate, 13-16 strong, 17-20 exceptional - enables consistent cross-company ranking
    • Union Pacific shows low incremental capex in practice - operating ratio <60% implies >$0.40 of every revenue dollar drops to operating income; CME exemplifies oligopoly via coordination barriers
    • Common lookalike traps to avoid - heavy but replicable assets (airlines, shipping), market share mistaken for moat, and conflating low absolute CapEx with low incremental CapEx
    • Use TOLL+M to drive capital allocation and timing - score the M last for regime fit, apply the separate LAND test for accounting gaps, and leverage the model for portfolio construction like institutional users
    Leo Nelissen
    Aug 20, 202610:09 AM40

    Introduction

    I keep getting the same question.

    It comes in messages, it comes in article comments, and it came again last week from a reader who had just read three of my pieces in a row and noticed that every single one of them ended with a number out of 100.

    "What is TOLL+M?"

    And every time, I've answered it in a paragraph. A quick definition, a link to a ranking article, maybe a line about how I score each pillar out of 20. Then I move on to whatever company I was actually writing about.

    That's a bad answer to a good question. A terrific question, actually.

    Because I use this model for everything, or at least a lot. Every initiation, every ranking, every update, every position in my own portfolio. It's the thing that decides what gets my capital and what gets a polite "interesting business" and nothing else. And I've never once sat down and written the whole thing out properly.

    So it's high time.

    This is the complete breakdown. What each letter means, how I score it, what the traps are, where the model breaks, and how I apply it to real companies, including the two largest positions I own. I'm going to be referring back to this piece for a long time, so if you're new here, this is the one to bookmark.

    Now, let's get to it.

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