What Income Investors Need To Know About Tobacco: Part 1

- Tobacco is the best performing industry in history, largely because of its defensive (and addictive) nature.
- The good news is that global nicotine (ex-China) is growing 4% to 5% per year, faster than the global economy (people love their vicesđ)
- The bad news is that not all tobacco companies will be able to take advantage of the transition to a tobacco free future (US smokes now cost $10 per pack and in Australia as much as $33).
- This is part 1 of a multi-part report looking at the 3 "big nicotine" dividend aristocrats, including which ones I might add to the Ultra ZEUS fund this year.
- The basic summary (seen in the table) is that PM is the growth leader (40% smoke-free sales), BTI is well on track for its 4% to 6% long-term guidance, and MO is OK...for now.
Jan 8, 20264:34 PM3950
Personal Note: Today is a very busy day (well, the rest of the week really) with 3 meetings and 2 doctorsâ appointments, so Iâm breaking up the promised tobacco special report (itâs been a while since I looked at PM, MO, and BTI), and I promised an update after forgetting to include tobacco in yesterdayâs article. The 5 Highest Yielding Dividend Aristocrats For January (And Some Updates About GNG) Iâm going to try to get out daily articles, and if something takes longer than expected, Iâll break it into a multi-part report. As I tell the GNG team, âWhen it comes to a complete project, it takes as long as it takes.â Bonus Report On Global Nicotine Market (Ex-China) At The Bottom Of This Report While I was working on my report, Gemini 3 Pro Deep Research was working on a retiree-focused report on the global nicotine market. So we can get a fact-based snapshot of the industry today Why A Multi-Part Report On Tobacco? There are a few reasons why I think itâs worth a multi-part report on tobacco. First, a lot of our GNG members are retired or nearing retirement, and tobacco is a traditionally high-yielding, low-volatility, and defensive (recession-resistant) industry. Second, itâs actually the best-performing industry in US stock market history. Source: Ploutos In fact, Philip Morris (Altria) was the best performing stock in history (though eventually, some tech firm may surpass it). Source: Perplexity Pro Thatâs not to say that Tobacco has been performing so well because itâs a growth industry (cigarette volumes have been declining for around 60 years in the US). Itâs rather that the business is so stable, and long lived, and as long as the industry can adapt to seemingly insurmountable secular trends (like declining volumes), say by raising prices faster than volumes decline, cutting costs, and buybacks, then the high-yield of the industry results in strong compounding effects. And thatâs how you can get an almost 3 MILLION X return in 100 years, because if you compound anything for long enough, you get life-changing numbers. And 3rd, adding tobacco to the Ultra ZEUS portfolio may potentially make it better, even for 2026. Ultra ZEUS: The Ultimate "Magic Money Machine" (22% Target Return with Ultra Low Volatility) For My Family's Needs For 2026 As I explained in this report, this year I have 2 âbabiesâ which are GNG, and the ZEUS fund, which funds it. And as I mentioned in yesterdayâs high-yield aristocrat report, setting up systems that took 6 years to develop in a fraction of the time, while running a full company and scaling up the team, is hard. So when I did the Ultra Zeus optimization, I didnât have time to do a thorough screening for the best companies (for each ZEUS Bucket). The last big update was done before we lost access to DK tools. Thatâs why I only used the ZEUS 2025 stocks (the 10 of them) in the optimizer, and thatâs why the results seem so odd (just 2 growth stocks and 2 value stocks). These daily reports will give me the time to check whether adding other blue-chip companies will help improve Ultra ZEUS 2026. Source: Portfolio Visualizer Premium This year, weâre going to launch a superior version of Portfolio Visualizerâs portfolio optimizer, but until we can, you can see how itâs possible to set up a comparison optimizer. Note that the limitation is that the time frame can only go as far back as the earliest (newest) IPO stock. In this case, VFLO July 2023. Connor has figured out a way to run backtests and Monte Carlos (using historical data) on a portfolio that includes both new and old stocks (up to 20 years), which is a huge benefit in terms of statistical significance. But hereâs an example of how adding the big three tobacco companies to Ultra ZEUS would change things. EPD o
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