Intuit (INTU): The Stock Broke Before the Business Did

INTU down ~56% to ~$331 from >$800, trading well below the 200-day at $554 - thesis: market priced collapse, but business intact; staged Strong Buy, blended fair value $480, 12-month target $430, margin of safety ~31%

Buy schedule - start a partial near $331, add on a defended retest low $300s, commit final tranche after reclaiming mid-$360s and the $385-$405 confirmation zone, position size 1% to 2% per name

Quality metrics - trailing 12-month FCF ~$7.7B on $20.9B revenue (FCF margin ~37%), gross margin ~80%, net margin ~22%, ROIC high teens (≈35% cash basis), net debt <0.1x equity, Altman Z 4.93, Piotroski 9

Growth drivers - FY26 revenue guidance $21.341B-$21.374B (+13%-14%), non-GAAP EPS ~+18%; segment strength: QuickBooks/Global Business Solutions +15%, Online Ecosystem +19%, Credit Karma +15%, Consumer +8%

Key risks and valuation - TurboTax low-end vulnerable to free AI and share loss, 17% workforce cut with $300M-$340M charges; stock trades ~12x forward EPS and FCF, FCF yield >8%, market implies ~1% FCF CAGR over 5 years

Stand inside a building when the ground starts to move and every nerve tells you to get out. The walls groan, the light fixtures swing, the glass rattles in its frame. (INTU) has handed its shareholders that exact sensation over the past twelve months. A stock that traded above $800 within the past year now changes hands near $331, nearly 60% below its 52-week high and down roughly 56% over the trailing year. Its 200-day moving average sits up at $554 and slopes down. Momentum has been brutal. If you only watched the chart, you would assume the structure was condemned.

But shaking is not the same as collapse. A structural engineer does not run when the seismograph spikes. They walk the building, check the foundation, test the load-bearing walls, and look for cracks that actually threaten the frame versus cosmetic ones that scare tenants. That is the job here. The market has shaken (INTU) hard. What pays is figuring out whether the structure underneath is sound or genuinely compromised.

Intuit (INTU): The Stock Broke Before the Business Did

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