British American Tobacco: What Investors Need To Know (Another Potential Ultra ZEUS V2 Candidate)

- British American Tobacco is the #2 global tobacco company, including in the all important reduced risk product segments.
- BTI is catching up to PM in terms of heat sticks, nicotine pouches and vaping, though it has experienced some success in Asia and Easter europe on those fronts.
- BTI's US RRP sales are struggling with the FDA not enforcing non-approved vaping mods and e-liquids. Management is trying to get the FDA to crack down.
- FCF/share growth through 2028 is expected to be 7.8%, though long-term growth of 4% to 6% is what management is guiding for (and the growth since 2011).
- BTI's dividend safety is impeccable thanks to the lowest payout ratio (65%), steadily falling leverage (2.7 and on its way to 2.3X in 2027 vs 3 safe), and a solid BBB+ credit rating and 25 year dividend growth streak.
- PEGY analysis indicates the stock is priced for 4.5% growth (the historical norm) BUT with 7.8% growth actually expected, a PEGY discount of 42% potentially creates around 80% total return potential in 2026.
- Morningstar's fair value assumes 12.5 PE (the historical median) with analyst consensus 14X and the PEGY indicating that if BTI keeps growing at 8% it's worth 20X.
- 12% to 13% CAGR total return is the base-case outlook for the next 5 years (about 1% higher than PM) and for a 3+ year portfolio adding BTI to a PM containing portfolio (like Ultra ZEUS V2) is a good idea.
Jan 14, 202610:44 PM2640
Quick Update Top Picks Are Back…Still working out the valuation rating kings (Thank you for your patience🙏🤗 I’ll be doing a monthly “Adam’s Top Buy List”, the first one is coming on Monday. With the monthly ZEUS update + GNG version of ZEUS (that is appropriate for the many people who were following ZEUS 2025) on Tuesday. Connor’s Wedding is coming up, and I’ll be gone from Wednesday, Jan 21st, through Tuesday, Jan 27th. Fortunately, we have 10 actionable articles coming out next week! Due to new exciting announcements (stay tuned! 😉 For now, the Top Buy List is just the current and future expected ZEUS holdings. This Morning Ultra ZEUS V1 Is Up 0.5% Ultra ZEUS V2 Is Up Even More (As It’s Designed To) +1% This Is A Value Rotation: A Very Good & Healthy Thing Source: GNG Research And don’t forget that in the last year, EVERYONE who has been invested (in every single major asset class) has made money. We’re All Miserable! But much richer! 😉😂🤣 In the Tuesday article, I’ll walk through the potential alternatives that I’m considering (a preliminary V3) and will then either rebalance Ultra ZEUS V1 into V2 (or whatever proves to be the best possible option) before the trip. I’ll do the same thing in February, doing the Top Buy List screening article, the screening article on Wednesday, February 18th, and then the Monthly ZEUS update and GNG ZEUS optimization on Thursday, February 19th, with the weekly Economic/Market Valuation & Fundamentals update on Friday. I want to make sure that ZEUS and GNG ZEUS and our members are as prepared as possible for whatever market/economic madness might break out on any vacation I might take😂 The Annual Ed Sheeran Concert Vacation to A Distant Land To Recharge My Soul and Remind me why we’re doing this in the first place😉 Part 3 Of The Tobacco Aristocrat Mega Review In part 1 of this special report series, I explained why Tobacco stocks have historically been attractive and what high-yield investors need to know about the future of the nicotine industry. What Income Investors Need To Know About Tobacco: Part 1 In other words… The power to manifest delightful memes and marketing images...is this not the power of the gods that man has yearned for since the dawn of time?! 😉😂🤣 And in Part 2 of the report series. Philip Morris International: The Nvidia of Tobacco Dividend Aristocrats is A Buffett-Style "Wonderful Company At A Fair Price" And Is Joining Ultra ZEUS Soon We examine why Philip Morris, the first mover in reduced-risk products (specifically heat sticks), skated to where the puck was going rather than where it currently was (iQOS R&D began in 2008 and ramped up with global launches in 2012). Heat Sticks Are The GPUs of Nicotine Right Now…The New Hotness! And No One Can Get Enough We saw why PM was the industry’s classic Buffett-style “Wonderful company at a fair price”, offering 11% to 12% CAGR return potential through 2030 (and 17% total return potential in 2026, though 50% if the PEGY fair value of PE is realized). So now let’s take a look at the higher-yielding and better valued British American, to see how it stacks up to PM, and whether or not it’s worth adding to one’s portfolio, using a similar rules based, disciplined approach using the ZEUS Fund as an example of how smart investors can make thoughtful decisions about whether or not adding companies to one’s portfolio is, what Buffett called “Diversification" or “De-worsification”. British American Tobacco Basic Summary Source: GNG Research The PEGY analysis shows a nice, modest discount (we’re working on getting 10 to 20-year average data). Dividend cut risk estimates are coming. BTI’s safety and quality are impeccable, courtesy of its safe leverage ratio and an industry-leading payout ratio guidance of 65% (85% is considered safe for tobacco companies by rating agencies). And of course, the 25-year dividen
Sign in to leave a comment and join the discussion.
Sign Up Free