Axon: I Own a Starter. The Rest of the Position Waits

Axon: I Own a Starter. The Rest of the Position Waits for the Trend.

Q2 revenue $904M, +35%, tenth straight quarter >30% growth; raised FY guide to 32-34%; future contracted bookings $15.1B, up >40%

ARR $1.6B, +39%, net revenue retention 126% - strong land-and-expand lock-in; contracted bookings rose >40% vs Motorola backlog +11%

Analyst consensus EPS 2026-28: $7.62, $10.51, $14.18, five-year EPS CAGR ~30% - stock trades ~32x 2028 consensus, justifying a starter not full weight

Trailing FCF $133M, FCF yield 0.35%, ROIC 4.4%; $1B 0% converts convert at $652.06, 10yr 5% and modeled cost of capital ~13% - fair value compresses to mid-$400s

Model holds 1.25% of 4% target, will add remaining 2.75% only after trend repair - conversion line > base, two closes above 200-day SMA (~$504), close above Ichimoku cloud ($530-$575)

On August 5, Axon Enterprise (AXON) reported second-quarter revenue of $904 million, up 35% and its tenth straight quarter above 30% growth, then raised full-year guidance to 32% to 34%. Future contracted bookings reached $15.1 billion, up more than 40%.

The stock closed Friday at $447.76, about 43% below its 52-week high.

Our Growth IRA model portfolio holds a 1.25% starter with a 4% target weight, and the easy move from here is to average down.

We are not going to.

So what has to happen on the chart before the other 2.75 points go in?

The short version is a session that ends back above the Ichimoku cloud, which sits roughly between $530 and $575 today and narrows toward $550 by mid-October. Below that, Axon is a falling price I see no reason to chase, however much I like the business. That rule can look timid for a stock we say we believe in over two to five years. I would argue it is the opposite, and the rest of this piece explains why, starting with the long-term case and ending with the exact levels.

Why the model owns Axon at all

Let me start with the mechanism, because the moat lives there and not in the product catalog. Axon sells police departments a stun-gun line, body cameras and a cloud platform where the footage and case files eventually live. Hardware gets the company through the door, and the subscription underneath it is what compounds.

Axon: I Own a Starter. The Rest of the Position Waits for the Trend.

Why the model owns Axon at all

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