Meet PLOW+M: The Framework For Everything TOLL+M Can't See

    Meet PLOW+M: The Framework For Everything TOLL+M Can't See
    • PLOW+M created to evaluate high-reinvestment compounders overlooked by TOLL+M; Amazon scored 63 on TOLL+M and 5/20 on incremental capital intensity yet is a top-4 holding
    • PLOW+M scores five pillars - Pricing power, Long reinvestment runway, Owner discipline, Widening moat, Macro alignment - each 0-20, total 100; Growth ≈ ROIC × reinvestment rate
    • Union Pacific - Pricing 17, Long runway 7, Owner 13; operating ratio improved 63.1% to 59.8% (2015-25), carloads flat, net reinvestment ~16% of after-tax operating profit, revenue +1.2%/yr
    • Amazon - Pricing 14, Long runway 17, Owner 13; reinvests ~135% of after-tax operating profit, incremental pre-tax return ~23%, AWS/ads pricing power, retail pricing often unused
    • Use TOLL+M for asset-heavy, cash-distributing businesses - pipelines, net-lease REITs, rail - and PLOW+M for high-reinvestment compounders; compare pillar scores to guide allocation by investor type
    Leo Nelissen
    Oct 1, 20268:59 AM ET110

    Introduction

    Over the past few months, TOLL+M has become the backbone of almost everything I do here. The model has even been brought up by some institutional investors, and I'm working on some fascinating collaborations for research in the months ahead.

    But that's not why I'm writing this.

    TOLL+M is how I rank REITs, midstream companies, defense contractors, BDCs, stock exchanges, royalty companies, and pretty much anything else that owns something the world cannot easily replace.

    There's just one problem.

    When I ran Amazon (AMZN) through TOLL+M, it scored 63 out of 100. That's a "poor fit." On Low incremental capital intensity, it scored 5 out of 20, which is the lowest number in the entire TOLL+M library.

    And yet, Amazon is in my portfolio. It's a top-4 position.

    That means one of two things. Either I don't trust my own framework, or the framework wasn't right for Amazon. I'm going with the second option (obviously), but you deserve a much better explanation than that.

    Additionally, ever since I covered Amazon and bought it, some people have brought up that it may make sense to add a different framework to the mix. That's what I spent almost two full weeks researching.

    So, today, I'm introducing PLOW+M, the second single-stock framework of Main Street Alpha. In this article, I'll explain what it is, why we need it, how each pillar is scored, how it differs from TOLL+M, when I use which model, and why it matters whether you're an income investor, a growth investor, a retiree, or all of the above.

    I'll use Union Pacific (UNP) and Amazon as examples, as they are the first two companies I scored (two of many more to come!)

    So, let's dive in!

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