Amazon.com Inc (AMZN)
Official siteCONSUMER CYCLICAL • INTERNET RETAIL • NASDAQ
Market Cap: $2.73T
Last updated: Sep 16, 2026 at 3:18 PM ET
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The $279 Billion Tell: The AI Trade Just Got A Lot Harder
Prices now pay for the magnitude and duration of AI, not correctness, so small errors in timing or sizing can produce severe losses Nvidia 2Q27 revenue $96.2B (+106% YoY), Data Center $89B (+117%), hyperscale $48.7B (+102%), AI clouds $40.3B (+138%), FY28 guide ~70%, 3Q27 $108B Microsoft, Amazon, Google and Meta spent $170B in the June quarter and guide ~$720-745B for 2026, AWS backlog $496B, Google Cloud backlog $514B, Amazon CapEx ~$220B A meaningful portion of hyperscaler CapEx buys higher-priced memory not more capacity - Amazon added ~$20B for memory, Micron stopped forecasting bit demand, signaling physical stagflation Nvidia supply commitments rose $119B to $279B, total commitments $366B, $92B hits FY27 remainder, $87B FY28, $88B FY29; guarantees include $3.5B and a 4.25GW 20-year lease
Hyperscaler Earnings: 3 Weddings And A Funeral😉...And Elon's $240 TRILLION Fever Dreams😂🤣
Four reports, four days: three weddings and a funeral 😉 Six companies spent $188.4 BILLION in ninety days — $24,000 a second, while you slept. That is seven and a half years of NASA. In one quarter 🤯 Azure ACCELERATED to 43% past $100B. AWS hit 36.8%, its fastest in EIGHTEEN quarters. Google Cloud grew 81.8%. The slowdown analysts have forecast for eight straight quarters still hasn't shown up 😂 And the funeral? Not Reality Labs — that loss widened $89M, a rounding error. R&D went from 27% of revenue to 36%. Meta made $60 BILLION and kept $784 million. Meta dug that grave itself 🥺 June 26th: PEGY 0.53 vs 0.93 historical, a 44% discount, July earnings named as the catalyst. June 11th: NO on the SpaceX IPO. MSFT jumped 13% in a session. SPCX is down 54%. Same tool, both directions 😉 Is the spending justified? Not a vibe, a ratio. Backlog grew 186%. Capex grew 79%. That's 2.35 to 1, and the gap WIDENED from 85 points to 108. Nobody manufactures $2.37 TRILLION of signatures 🤯 Consensus has SpaceX AI beating AWS by 2031 at a 96.4% EBITDA margin. I hunted for any business on Earth earning that. Couldn't find one. So I checked COCAINE. Cocaine doesn't clear it either 🤣 Elon's full vision — 10,000 Starships a year, 200 GW of data centers IN ORBIT, ten billion Optimus robots — prices out at $74 to $240 TRILLION. That is 15% to 48% of ALL the wealth on Earth. In fifteen years 🤯 🤣 $11.05 TRILLION of growth spending: six companies, six years, a third of everything Earth spends building and inventing. FCF bottoms at -$180B, then hits $803B by 2031. That's 8.4X FCF growth over 3 years (103% CAGR)
The Investing Lesson That Changed Everything For Me
Kirby coffee-can case - $5,000 initial buys (≈$16k today) left untouched produced one Haloid stake worth >$800,000 in Xerox, beating the professional portfolio and highlighting value of not trading winners away Bessembinder (1926-2016) on ~26,000 U.S. stocks - majority underperformed 1-month T-bills, 4% of firms generated all net wealth above T-bills, and ~90 firms (0.3%) created over half of market wealth Phelps and Mayer on 100-baggers - hundreds of 100x winners existed, the average 100-bagger took ~26 years, so premature selling of winners forfeits the disproportionate long-term compounding Behavioral evidence - Barber and Odean show most-active retail traders underperformed by >6% annually and sold stocks later seen outperforming replacements, supporting pre-commitment tools like a never-sell list Practical application - author holds winners despite valuation (GE +50% last year, forward EPS multiple >40x); recommended actions: set never-sell core positions, size for volatility, add on weakness, accept some losers
Big Tech's $725 Billion AI Bet Isn't The Risk - It's The Moat
Exponential AI token demand meets linear supply, creating persistent scarcity and pricing power - Goldman models token consumption rising 24x as autonomous agents run continuously Real-economy adoption is accelerating, Dylan Patel’s firm scaled enterprise API spend from $100k to ~$11M annualized, and customers are cutting legacy software to fund AI FCF margins compressed 8-11pp - MSFT 33%->23%, GOOGL 26%->15%, META 33%->22%, AMZN ~0% - operating margins MSFT 46%, GOOGL 36%, META >40%, AMZN 13%, ROICs 27/29/23/16 Capital intensity is now a moat, securing compute costs ~$200B/year and only 4-5 firms can self-fund ~$190B annual CapEx; hyperscaler RPO backlog $2.1T, growing 185% YoY Buildout funded from internal cash not debt - net debt MSFT $8B, GOOGL $39B, AMZN $17B, META $38B, interest coverage 29x-140x; primary risk is backlog concentration, ~50% tied to OpenAI/Anthropic
Meta Is Spending Like a Cloud Provider. It Might Start Earning Like One.
Bloomberg reports Meta is building a cloud to sell excess AI compute - if confirmed, the $125-145B 2026 capex shifts from 'dead money' to potential revenue-generating capacity and option value Core ad franchise remains high quality - trailing revenue ~$215B, gross margin ~82%, operating margin ~41%; March quarter revenue $56.3B (+33%), ad impressions +19%, price per ad +12% AI spend is already boosting ads - 8M advertisers use generative tools, video generation tests showed >3% conversion lift, value optimization suite now >$20B ARR after doubling year over year Valuation and balance sheet look supportive - shares $583 vs blended fair $750 (~29% upside) and GNG fair $845, forward P/E ~19-20x, PEG <1, Altman Z ~8, net debt/EBITDA ~0.3x, >$80B cash Principal risks to monitor - OCF $32.2B vs FCF $12.4B as capex and leases ~ $19.8B, trailing FCF down ~8% YoY; watch quarterly FCF < ~$10B, further capex raises, and cloud execution or delay
Government Contracts
Top agency: Department of Defense at 76.3% of trailing twelve month obligations across 17 agencies
Recent Awards
Federal contract obligations are bookings recorded by the awarding agency, not recognized revenue. They can exceed 100% of revenue and can be negative when contracts are de-obligated. Source: USAspending.gov prime awards, data through Jul 31, 2026.
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Frequently Asked Questions About AMZN
- Does AMZN pay dividends?
- Amazon.com Inc (AMZN) has a dividend payment track record. See the AMZN dividend history page for its current payment status, yield, and streaks.
- What is AMZN's P/E ratio?
- Amazon.com Inc has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 29.62.
- What is AMZN's market cap?
- Amazon.com Inc (AMZN) has a market capitalization of $2.73T with a current stock price of $253.54.
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