IAUM (IAUM)
Commodities • Commodities Focused
Market Cap: $7.60B
Last updated: Sep 01, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET
IAUM (IAUM)
Commodities Focused • USA
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Is CTA Broken? Three Wars, Nine Funds, and Exactly What To Do About It 😉
In December I told you CTA wasn't broken, just cyclical. In March it went UP while the market fell 10%. Then May and June happened and it fell 19% while the S&P set twenty-five all-time highs 😳 Simplify's own risk profile: Brent crude is 56.95% of CTA's entire risk. Three energy contracts are 84.68%. No stocks, no bonds, no currencies. Eight commodity contracts = 100% of the fund 🤯 CTA isn't broken. It's working perfectly on a job you no longer need done. It stopped being a hedge and became a leveraged bet on whether a war continues. Those aren't the same thing 🥺 The fix isn't selling CTA, it's resizing it for a better hedging bucket: CTA 30% · DBMF 25% · IALT 25% · KMLM 10% · IAUM 10%. Five sleeves that break on different days, for a blended 0.78% expense ratio 🖖 40% better annual returns than CTA (and 10% better than the S&P) with 50% less volatility (of both CTA and the S&P). Even lower volatility than a 60/40 portfolio!🤯 Peak declines 50% lower than CTA's And with far better consistency of returns (no down year in the last 5) and 5/5 of the last corrections positive returns and -56% downside capture of the S&P. These 5 ETFs work so perfectly because they all diversify each other and create stronger negative correlation to stocks than CTA alone. There is no free lunch in investing Except diversification and this is the best hedging bucket I've seen yet.
Three Ways to Own Gold. Most Investors Pick One.
Newmont's Safety Score is 99.03 out of 100. Interest coverage sits at 52.85x. Piotroski F-Score is a perfect 9. This is not a typical gold miner balance sheet. The company generated $7.3B in free cash flow in 2025, paid down $3.4B in debt, and ended the year in a net cash position. The cleanup is done. GNG fair value is $127.94. Vulcan fair value is $144.88. The stock is trading near $105. Every serious valuation model shows a meaningful discount. Gold belongs in your portfolio as a regime hedge. Physical via (IAUM) or (GLD), a basket via (GDX), and a best-in-class equity position in (NEM) serve three different functions. Operating leverage is the miner's advantage over the metal. At current gold prices, Newmont's per-ounce spread is roughly $1,420 above its all-in sustaining cost. 2026 is a transition year with softer production guidance and elevated capex. That's the known risk. The balance sheet strength means the company can absorb it. The 1-year max drawdown is 66.7%. Entry discipline and position sizing matter more here than with an index fund.
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