SpaceXAI IPO Part 3: If You Like the SpaceXAI IPO, You’ll LOVE the $2 Trillion GNG IPO Next Year! 😉😂🤣

In part 1 of this series, we looked at the facts behind the SpaceXAI IPO, and in part 2, we looked at the SUPER COOL story that Elon is spinning, which is 50% PT Barnum, 50% Star Trek nerd, and 150% Silicon Valley bravado 😂.

In part 3, I want to give my Josh Brown-style commentary, because at some point, optimistic extrapolations become dangerous, just as SPAC investors learned following the 2021 post-pandemic speculative mania driven by lots of stimulus money, zero rates, and a belief that only narrative and potential and TAM were needed for life-changing stock market profits.

This is what happens when you trust the story instead of the math.

Chamath raised $4.75 billion from investors who lost $1.24 billion.

Elon is trying to raise $75 billion + $11 billion greenshoe + $350 billion in burn through 2030 (Goldman Sachs) = $436 billion direct cash raise.

Plus, of course, buying Tesla and Cursor AI for around $2 trillion (including Tesla premium)

Elon is asking investors to pony up 500X as much as Chamath ever did.

So you better believe that the team and I spent 2 weeks making DARN sure that anyone investing knows EXACTLY what they are getting into.

So let me share a parody I came up with in the GNG Chat room (Ask Adam), where I post screenshots, charts, and random thoughts that often become entire research reports.

That is the place you can get unfiltered Adam…yes, these articles are me with a filter! 😉🤣

Satire Is The Key To Understanding An Aburd World With Absurd Claims

Let me tell you an absurd story.

When Connor showed me some of his preliminary algo historical returns, I fed them into Perplexity and asked her to run the numbers and extrapolate what is the maximum potential returns that the algo plans that Connor was working towards MIGHT one day, at full scale, be able to achieve.

The answer was $500 billion to $5 trillion. Perplexity was clear that this was a hypothetical “in theory, the laws of math allow this, but don’t ever tell anyone about this” kind of inside joke😉😂

When I was going on this 2-week odyssey of deep diving on SpaceXAI,

I came to realize that I could turn our inside joke about the “magic money machines” of GNG into a potential satire.

First: A Message from Legal😉

To be unmistakably clear: there is no GNG IPO. The "$2 trillion GNG IPO" is satire, designed to demonstrate how TAM-based hype math can justify any valuation for any company. GNG is not raising capital, and no part of this article is an offer of securities.

Adam’s funny response. (checked with legal first because the lawyers rule us all)😉😂🤣

Hey, in 5 years we would love to IPO... just at a reasonable valuation... like $1 trillion, not $2 trillion... because we're not maniacs 🤣

So let me show you the madness/genius of the 2027 GNG IPO that is very compelling math! I swear! The upside potential is huge! 😉😂🤣

$2 Trillion Valuation Is A Bargain! Heck, That Might Be An 80% Dicount! Just Look At The Math😂🤣

OK, so let’s start with the classic Shark-Tank/huckster claim…”The TAM (total addressable market) is HUGE! If we can get just 1% of that market, the company will be worth billions (or trillions!)🤣

$500 billion to $5 trillion in potential trading profits, let’s just ignore the value of the rest of GNG Research, including the wealth management arm, the ETFs, and every other vertical. Let’s just focus on the trading profit POTENTIAL.

After all, SpaceXAI’s S1 clearly lists 93% of its TAM of $28.5 trillion as AI (80% enterprise AI = Grok)

In other words, SpaceXAI is calling itself an 80% AI company, so Elon is saying “Grok is the investment proposition”.

So let’s do the same. Trading profits only.

$500 billion to $5 trillion…OK, those numbers SEEM big…so let’s be conservative😂 by using the 1% rule. $5 billion to $50 billion in trading profits and the growth rate? In the age of AI? Elon has

The trading profit potential is based on the current size of the global economy, but as you can see, Elon is telling people that by 2030, GDP growth could be 100%, so that means if 80% to 93% of GNG’s value is in the trading profits alone, then the revenue growth COULD be 100%.

• I didn’t say it! Elon, Patron saint of the singularity, did!😉

What is the S&P and Nasdaq’s historical PEG ratio? 1.3, and according to David Blundin (an AI VC investor), the venture capital industry also considers a 1.3 PEG “growth at a reasonable price”.

Since that’s the stock market’s long-term PEG, that seems reasonable, so let’s use that.

Any company in 2030+ (according to Elon) growing at a GDP rate will be growing at 100% and thus worth 130X earnings.

• Cisco’s Peak PE in March 2000 was 130…but come on! 100% annual growth….Elon says so😂

OK, so 130X $5 to $50 billion = $650 billion to $6.5 trillion, and we’re ONLY asking a $2 trillion valuation! Both the Information AND Morningstar

The information also estimates a $700 billion valuation using a weighted sum-of-the-parts calculation.

This is the information: Estimates of Fair Value

Similar to Morningstar’s $813 billion.

So Elon is saying, “I am worth $1 trillion because I am Elon Musk!”

Shocking Truth Behind The $22.7 Trillion AI Enterprise Value TAM

OK, so here's the part that broke my brain. We dug into where the $22.7 trillion enterprise AI TAM actually comes from, and the answer is... salaries. The methodology is: global wages are ~$50 trillion, assume AI does ~45% of that work, and boom, $22.5 trillion "market." That's it. That's the math. 🤯

Folks, wages are not revenue. Wages are what employers pay PEOPLE. A market is what customers pay VENDORS. And a valuation is a claim on vendor PROFITS. That's three different things, but the slide treats them as a single number. It's apples to oranges to screwdrivers.

By this logic, I can do even better! The solar system contains roughly 443 Earths' worth of resources. 443 x global GDP = a $63,349 TRILLION TAM for SpaceX launch systems! Technically, you CAN multiply those numbers together. Your calculator will not stop you. That's the problem. 😂

Here's what a century of automation actually says: the spreadsheet transformed millions of clerical jobs, and the software industry captured single digits of those wages. The tractor remade farming; the equipment makers got a sliver. The ATM automated the teller's job and teller employment... went UP. Competition hands the savings to customers, not vendors. Every time.

Run the honest version: take the full $50T pool, grant the aggressive 45%, then apply a real capture rate. You get $200 billion to maybe $2.3 trillion in vendor revenue (max AI revenue capacity is about $5.1 trillion in 2030). That would still be one of the greatest market expansions in history! And it's still 10x to 100x SMALLER than the slide. The bull case survives the arithmetic. The $22.7 trillion does not.

And the kicker: the whole pitch eats itself. The reason AI wins is that intelligence is getting radically CHEAP. You cannot tell customers "this costs a tenth of a human" and tell shareholders "we keep the human's whole salary." Pick one. The market already did. 😉

Maybe not illegal. But definitely slegal.

Anyone who offers no proof, only trust and showmanship, is not someone I'd hand capital to. Wonder is free. Revenue is invoiced.😉 

Grok Isn’t Going To Beat Chat GPT…Sorry Elon😉

WELL, if Elon is the patron saint of the technological future and can manifest anything, then anyone believing him about SpaceXAI’s $2 trillion IPO must therefore agree with 100% GDP growth and the 130 PE we’re applying to our VERY CONSERVATIVE😉 $5 to $50 billion in trading profits that are coming soon! 😂Just like Elon’s $313 billion in Grok Revenue…just as soon as he launches Grok 5 and buys Cursor…after the IPO…of course🤣

Let me show you something.

Perplexity is on track to have $650 million in ARR by the end of 2026 (growing 5X per year), which, according to Elon’s math, would make Perplexity worth about $4 trillion! Today!

After all, it’s 2X more than Grok revenue and growing even faster than SpaceXAI’s 4X per year goal.

• $500 million in revenue is real, and the growth rate is real; it’s not an extrapolated dream derived from a tortured spreadsheet😉.

OK, so I just showed you that Perplexity is worth $4 trillion TODAY!

OK, so given the OBVIOUS value that Perplexity represents at a $4 trillion… you can see how GNG, with its $5 billion to $50 billion per year in profits AND over 8.3 billion potential customers who MIGHT theoretically subscribe one day 😉! I mean Meta’s social networks total 4 billion monthly users!😂So GNG’s total addressable potential users is 2X more than Meta!🤣

Meta is a $1.5 trillion market cap company! Growing at “just” 33%! And our POTENTIAL customer base alone is 2X that of Meta?! So you can clearly see that we’re worth $3 trillion (looking at our subscriber potential alone!), never mind the $650 billion to $6.5 trillion in value from the algos!

Heck, add in the wealth management and ETF business, and I think it’s VERY POSSIBLE (based on Elon’s magic math) that GNG is worth $10 TRILLION TODAY! Can you see why a $2 trillion market cap is 5X upside to fair value?!

There is nothing but upside at a $2 trillion valuation! 8 people who are expanding to 9 within a few weeks? Irrelevant! Still losing money? SpaceXAI is worth $2 trillion, burning $14 billion per year in cash, and plans to double capex this year alone!

So… now that you're a person of impeccable intellect and obvious investing brilliance who can see the incredible vision and potential of the global economy's future, I have just one question for you.

How many shares of the $2 trillion GNG IPO can I put you down for?😉😂🤣

Breaking Down The Absurdity And Why SpaceXAI Investors Need To Be Very Careful

The kind of speculative IPOs we’re seeing with SpaceXAI is nothing new. We’ve seen it for centuries.

When people start inventing new kinds of math and accounting and claiming “You can’t value companies based on sales,” well, then you know you’re dealing with dangerous nonsense.

I know it’s a bit ironic that a man calculating that hyperscalers COULD spend UP TO $8 trillion on AI by 2030…per year…is calling SpaceXAI A bubble…but welcome to our crazy world!😉😂🤣

Let’s Stress Test Just ONE of SpaceXAI’s Claims