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The Math Tells The Story: The 8 Infographics to Stay Sane In Crazy Times (Like Today!)

Key takeaways
- More coming next week (Tokenomics 6: Everyone Calm The Frack Down And Look At The Math!)
- The market is freaking out over the potential of Democrats to come down hard on AI.
- The Blue Wave does not eliminate the Filibuster in the Senate OR the Presidential Veto...OR the 6-3 Conservative Supreme Court.
- The market is acting as if Bernie Sanders's wet dreams about banning all new data centers actually has a chance of happening (it's effectively zero).
- SO here are the actual FACTS, the latest FactSet consensus from ALL analysts about all hyperscalers, AND the total return potential tables for each of them (6X in 4 years on NVDA)
- Danny Ive MIGHT think that peak AI capex is next year, BUT that is NOT what the consensus shows.
- Earnings + Monthly Ramp Capital AI Spending report = Facts. Everything else is speculation. Stay Calm, the math is mathing.
- SO here are the actual FACTS, the latest FactSet consensus from ALL analysts about all hyperscalers, AND the total return potential tables for each of them.
Nov 5, 20264:34 PM ET520
More coming next week (Tokenomics 6: Everyone Calm The Frack Down And Look At The Math!) But on a day when the S&P is down 4% and the Nasdaq 6%, I figured speed over explanations and narrative debunking would help. Rapid-fire commentary is all there is time for right now The Math Tells The Story: The 8 Infographics to Stay Sane In Crazy Times No decline in growth capex spending expected. Free Cash Flow Margins AT Record High By 2031 Free cash flow CAGR, 2028–2031: 322.6% per year. $1.2 Trillion in Annual Free Cash Flow by 2031 22% FCF margins (higher than ANY TIME BEFORE THE AI BOOM) and $1.2 trillion in FCF by 2031. AND we're bearish?! WHO THE FRACK IS BEARISH! Every quarter, these numbers get better, larger, and more bullish. Exponential View 2030 Estimate Is $1.9 Trillion Capex Where does the party stop? NVDA has spent all that money on "circular deals" to grow capex at a 40% CAGR. Everything Jensen is doing is to grow the supply chain. Same with the $1.6+ trillion in leases hyperscalers are signing. "Circle deals" = growing the supply chain to make THIS chart possible. All estimates have been converging on THIS chart $8.2 trillion in AI spending in 2030 is what financial markets can handle (2X Jensen’s forecast) Source: Nvidia Source: FactSet Total Return Potentials For Hyperscalers And Nvidia (Highest To Lowest CAGR Return Potential Through 2031) Based on forward P/E alone (67% of Fund managers’ favorite valuation metric) Source: FactSet 54% CAGR through 2030 for NVDA...feeling bearish yet?! 🤔 😂 Fundamentals Justify 6x in 4 Years! Source: FactSet Oracle now trades at the same EV/EBITDA multiple as small-cap emerging-market stocks!
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