MURGY (MURGY)

Forget The 4% Rule: This Is The Retirement Number That Actually Matters

Safe withdrawal rate is an output, not a rule, and depends on three inputs, two of which, spending and portfolio size, are controllable The 4% rule came from Bengen's US data; Pfau found only Canada reliably sustained 4%, global composite nearer 3.5%, boosted by US returns A 38-country (1890-2019) study found a 65-year-old couple with 5% ruin tolerance should use low-2% withdrawals, not 4% Withdrawal rate = annual spending ÷ portfolio, so 3% implies ~33x spending; invert the ratio to set a portfolio target Adjust assumptions for country and valuation risk, or change controllables: cut spending, save more, accept higher ruin risk, or postpone retirement