Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)
Official siteTECHNOLOGY • SOFTWARE - INFRASTRUCTURE • NASDAQ
Market Cap: $3.75T
Last updated: Aug 28, 2026 at 4:59 PM ET
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Hyperscaler Earnings: 3 Weddings And A Funeral😉...And Elon's $240 TRILLION Fever Dreams😂🤣
Four reports, four days: three weddings and a funeral 😉 Six companies spent $188.4 BILLION in ninety days — $24,000 a second, while you slept. That is seven and a half years of NASA. In one quarter 🤯 Azure ACCELERATED to 43% past $100B. AWS hit 36.8%, its fastest in EIGHTEEN quarters. Google Cloud grew 81.8%. The slowdown analysts have forecast for eight straight quarters still hasn't shown up 😂 And the funeral? Not Reality Labs — that loss widened $89M, a rounding error. R&D went from 27% of revenue to 36%. Meta made $60 BILLION and kept $784 million. Meta dug that grave itself 🥺 June 26th: PEGY 0.53 vs 0.93 historical, a 44% discount, July earnings named as the catalyst. June 11th: NO on the SpaceX IPO. MSFT jumped 13% in a session. SPCX is down 54%. Same tool, both directions 😉 Is the spending justified? Not a vibe, a ratio. Backlog grew 186%. Capex grew 79%. That's 2.35 to 1, and the gap WIDENED from 85 points to 108. Nobody manufactures $2.37 TRILLION of signatures 🤯 Consensus has SpaceX AI beating AWS by 2031 at a 96.4% EBITDA margin. I hunted for any business on Earth earning that. Couldn't find one. So I checked COCAINE. Cocaine doesn't clear it either 🤣 Elon's full vision — 10,000 Starships a year, 200 GW of data centers IN ORBIT, ten billion Optimus robots — prices out at $74 to $240 TRILLION. That is 15% to 48% of ALL the wealth on Earth. In fifteen years 🤯 🤣 $11.05 TRILLION of growth spending: six companies, six years, a third of everything Earth spends building and inventing. FCF bottoms at -$180B, then hits $803B by 2031. That's 8.4X FCF growth over 3 years (103% CAGR)
Azure Accelerated At $100 Billion Of Scale. Why I Own Microsoft, And What Still Worries Me
Azure grew 43% in the June quarter vs guide 39-40% and street ~40%, management guided ~45% CC for September, full-year Azure revenue topped $100B, up 41% - rare acceleration at that scale Management attributes the upside to supply - 31 new datacenters this quarter, 88 YTD, ~1GW added and GPU-to-revenue lag roughly halved, suggesting growth currently tracks build velocity not unconstrained demand Accounting changes lower the capex headline - data center useful life extended 15 to 25 years and more leases classified as operating, cutting 2026 capex from ~$190B to ~$175B while underlying spend stays the same Microsoft monetizes multiple AI layers - Foundry 100k customers and >11k models, Fabric >40k paid customers, PostgreSQL revenue +55%, Copilot 30M paid seats but only ~6-7% penetration of a 460M commercial base Backlog and cash dynamics warrant caution - commercial RPO $678B +84% (ex-OpenAI +25%), Q4 OCF $55.4B, FY OCF $182.9B, Q4 FCF $19.6B, capex consumed 57% of OCF and FCF conversion ~0.58, concentration risk remains
Nebius: $33.6 Billion in Orders and a Yard Still Under Construction
Nebius reports $33.585B of remaining performance obligations as of Mar 31, versus the $46B headline; shares fell 15% on July 24 to close $187.77, highlighting execution risk between contracts and capacity delivery Anchor contracts: Microsoft ~ $17.4B (options toward ~$19.4B) and Meta committed $12B, with up to $15B optional - stripping Meta optional capacity leaves roughly $29B of firm hyperscaler commitments Conversion profile concentrates risk - 29% of the $33.59B RPO expected within 24 months, 39% in months 25-48; Nebius has >3.5GW contracted, a >4GW year-end target, and connected power guided to 800MW-1GW by end-2026 Q1 cash dynamics: OCF $2.258B, capex $2.473B, deferred revenue +$3.198B - underlying OCF ~-$940M pre-capex and economic cash consumption ~-$3.4B; closed $775M secured facility at SOFR+2.50% maturing 2030 Valuation vs solvency mismatch - trading ~66x trailing sales versus peers, yet net cash ~$848M (cash $9.30B, debt $8.45B), Altman Z 3.25 and GNG Quant Score 72.0, implying high multiple priced for flawless execution
Big Tech's $725 Billion AI Bet Isn't The Risk - It's The Moat
Exponential AI token demand meets linear supply, creating persistent scarcity and pricing power - Goldman models token consumption rising 24x as autonomous agents run continuously Real-economy adoption is accelerating, Dylan Patel’s firm scaled enterprise API spend from $100k to ~$11M annualized, and customers are cutting legacy software to fund AI FCF margins compressed 8-11pp - MSFT 33%->23%, GOOGL 26%->15%, META 33%->22%, AMZN ~0% - operating margins MSFT 46%, GOOGL 36%, META >40%, AMZN 13%, ROICs 27/29/23/16 Capital intensity is now a moat, securing compute costs ~$200B/year and only 4-5 firms can self-fund ~$190B annual CapEx; hyperscaler RPO backlog $2.1T, growing 185% YoY Buildout funded from internal cash not debt - net debt MSFT $8B, GOOGL $39B, AMZN $17B, META $38B, interest coverage 29x-140x; primary risk is backlog concentration, ~50% tied to OpenAI/Anthropic
Meta Is Spending Like a Cloud Provider. It Might Start Earning Like One.
Bloomberg reports Meta is building a cloud to sell excess AI compute - if confirmed, the $125-145B 2026 capex shifts from 'dead money' to potential revenue-generating capacity and option value Core ad franchise remains high quality - trailing revenue ~$215B, gross margin ~82%, operating margin ~41%; March quarter revenue $56.3B (+33%), ad impressions +19%, price per ad +12% AI spend is already boosting ads - 8M advertisers use generative tools, video generation tests showed >3% conversion lift, value optimization suite now >$20B ARR after doubling year over year Valuation and balance sheet look supportive - shares $583 vs blended fair $750 (~29% upside) and GNG fair $845, forward P/E ~19-20x, PEG <1, Altman Z ~8, net debt/EBITDA ~0.3x, >$80B cash Principal risks to monitor - OCF $32.2B vs FCF $12.4B as capex and leases ~ $19.8B, trailing FCF down ~8% YoY; watch quarterly FCF < ~$10B, further capex raises, and cloud execution or delay
Government Contracts
Top agency: Department of Defense at 77.1% of trailing twelve month obligations across 11 agencies
Recent Awards
Federal contract obligations are bookings recorded by the awarding agency, not recognized revenue. They can exceed 100% of revenue and can be negative when contracts are de-obligated. Source: USAspending.gov prime awards, data through Jul 31, 2026.
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Frequently Asked Questions About MSFT
- What is MSFT's current dividend yield?
- Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) has a current dividend yield of 0.72%.
- Does MSFT pay dividends?
- Yes, Microsoft Corporation pays dividends with a current yield of 0.72%.
- What is MSFT's P/E ratio?
- Microsoft Corporation has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 28.23.
- What is MSFT's market cap?
- Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) has a market capitalization of $3.75T with a current stock price of $505.06.
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