NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)
Official siteTECHNOLOGY • SEMICONDUCTORS • NASDAQ
Market Cap: $5.33T
Last updated: Sep 01, 2026 at 5:00 PM ET
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GNG Research Radar | August 8–14, 2026
NVIDIA struck platform deals with Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman and KKR to enable >$500bn potential AI-infrastructure financing, but capacity is not committed PJM attributes roughly 30 GW of its projected 32 GW load growth through 2030 to data centers; proposed rule would force new large loads to bring generation or accept emergency curtailment Pentagon draft memo directs up to $244m to Palantir services through Mar 2027 and seeks funding to Dec 2028, potentially expanding PLTR into munitions production and supply-chain work Cisco reported $9.3bn FY2026 hyperscaler AI-infrastructure orders and expects related revenue to rise from ~$4bn to $7.5bn in FY2027; Supermicro posted $39.1bn FY2026 sales and guided $65-72bn Sandisk forecasts 1.2ZB enterprise flash demand by 2030 and targets mid-to-high-teens CAGR FY2028-30; Applied Materials revenue $9.12bn, +25% - supports suppliers, but tech is ~30% of MSCI ACWI
The mid-year 2026 Vulcan AI Spine Model Portfolio Update
Vulcan AI Spine is a 29-stock, 100% invested thematic model to be tracked six-to-nine months through Jan-Apr 2027, largest weight 5.6%, smallest 1.3%, weights used as primary risk control Portfolio allocations are 41.0% Core AI, 28.5% Physical Buildout, 25.0% Power & Utilities, and 5.5% GE Vernova as the bridge, with individual weights summing exactly to 100% Five backbone infrastructure names - NVDA, TSM, GOOGL, AVGO, ASML - comprise 25.1% of the portfolio and 61.2% of Core AI; NVDA interest coverage ~629x, TSM capex 33.5% of sales, ASML 41.5x forward PE Cyclical or expectation-dependent Core AI positions are sized conservatively - MU at 6.4x forward earnings and 80.4% operating margin (3.8% weight), MRVL is -41.1% from its 52-week high, ANET FCF conversion 54.4% Goldman baseline models $7.6tn AI capex 2026-31 - compute $5.1tn, data centers $2.1tn, power $0.358tn - portfolio intentionally overweights power and GEV to capture regulated, uncorrelated cashflows, construction backlog
Nebius: $33.6 Billion in Orders and a Yard Still Under Construction
Nebius reports $33.585B of remaining performance obligations as of Mar 31, versus the $46B headline; shares fell 15% on July 24 to close $187.77, highlighting execution risk between contracts and capacity delivery Anchor contracts: Microsoft ~ $17.4B (options toward ~$19.4B) and Meta committed $12B, with up to $15B optional - stripping Meta optional capacity leaves roughly $29B of firm hyperscaler commitments Conversion profile concentrates risk - 29% of the $33.59B RPO expected within 24 months, 39% in months 25-48; Nebius has >3.5GW contracted, a >4GW year-end target, and connected power guided to 800MW-1GW by end-2026 Q1 cash dynamics: OCF $2.258B, capex $2.473B, deferred revenue +$3.198B - underlying OCF ~-$940M pre-capex and economic cash consumption ~-$3.4B; closed $775M secured facility at SOFR+2.50% maturing 2030 Valuation vs solvency mismatch - trading ~66x trailing sales versus peers, yet net cash ~$848M (cash $9.30B, debt $8.45B), Altman Z 3.25 and GNG Quant Score 72.0, implying high multiple priced for flawless execution
Big Tech's $725 Billion AI Bet Isn't The Risk - It's The Moat
Exponential AI token demand meets linear supply, creating persistent scarcity and pricing power - Goldman models token consumption rising 24x as autonomous agents run continuously Real-economy adoption is accelerating, Dylan Patel’s firm scaled enterprise API spend from $100k to ~$11M annualized, and customers are cutting legacy software to fund AI FCF margins compressed 8-11pp - MSFT 33%->23%, GOOGL 26%->15%, META 33%->22%, AMZN ~0% - operating margins MSFT 46%, GOOGL 36%, META >40%, AMZN 13%, ROICs 27/29/23/16 Capital intensity is now a moat, securing compute costs ~$200B/year and only 4-5 firms can self-fund ~$190B annual CapEx; hyperscaler RPO backlog $2.1T, growing 185% YoY Buildout funded from internal cash not debt - net debt MSFT $8B, GOOGL $39B, AMZN $17B, META $38B, interest coverage 29x-140x; primary risk is backlog concentration, ~50% tied to OpenAI/Anthropic
Shut Up And Buy These 5 Smart Stocks And You'll Thank Me In A Year 😉😂🥳 Part 2! (8 Reasons Nvidia Is My Highest Conviction Idea Ever)
Last week I explained why 4 of the hyperscalers (MSFT, AMZN, ORCL and META) were some of the best likely investments over the next 12 months (100% upside potential justified by fundamentals). I hinted that this week I would showcase the 5th "smart stock" to "shut up and buy and you'll thank me in a year😉😂🥳" and there are 8 reasons that stock is Nvidia. Nvidia's consensus growth rate through 2031 is 36% to 53% depending on the metric. The FCF margins are expected to rise to 60% by 2030 thanks to rising prices for its hardware (23% CAGR price hikes expected). The valuation is absurdly attractive 46% to 51% discount to historical multiples in the age of AI. Even ignoring AI valuation multiples NVDA appears 29% to 41% historically undervalued (and growing FCF 120% this year!) The fundamentally justified return potential (consensus X historical multiples) is 24% to 36% CAGR (194% to 356% total return) over the next 5 years. Those consensus estimates keep rising every few weeks BECAUSE Jensen is the Warren Buffett/JPMorgan of AI, he is unlocking the supply chain with his wheeling/dealing/travel. Nvidia's cash returns are expected to reach $10.3 trillion over the next 20 years, with annual cash return of almost $1 trillion thanks to returning 50% of FCF ($462 billion by 2029) through buybacks and dividends.
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Frequently Asked Questions About NVDA
- What is NVDA's current dividend yield?
- NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) has a current dividend yield of 0.01%.
- Does NVDA pay dividends?
- Yes, NVIDIA Corporation pays dividends with a current yield of 0.01%.
- What is NVDA's P/E ratio?
- NVIDIA Corporation has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 31.50.
- What is NVDA's market cap?
- NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) has a market capitalization of $5.33T with a current stock price of $220.78.
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